Nifty closes above 18,600 for the first time, next hurdle 18,700

The Nifty hit another high to close above 18,600 for the first time on November 29, extending the uptrend to the sixth consecutive session supported by positive global cues and buying in FMCG, metal and pharma stocks.

After opening flat at 18,552, which was also the day's low, the index traded higher for the rest of the day. It hit a new high of 18,678 and closed 55 points higher than the previous day at 18,618. The index has formed a bullish candle on the daily charts, making higher highs for the fifth straight session.

Momentum indicators the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trading above 60 and Moving Average Convergence and Divergence were trending upward on the daily and weekly charts, with MACD giving a positive crossover on the daily frame.

"The market is consistently holding higher high and higher low formation which is broadly positive. Hence the support has now shifted to 18,550 from 18,450," Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research ( Retail) at Kotak Securities said.
As long as the index trades above 18,550, the uptrend will continue. The market can move to 18,750-18,800, the expert said.

The broader market, however, saw profit booking, with the Nifty midcap 50, midcap 100 and smallcap 100 indices declining half a percent each. On the options front, the maximum Call open interest was at 19,000 strike followed by 20,000 strike, with Call writing at 18,800 strike then 18,700 strike. The maximum Put open interest was seen at 18,000 strike followed by 17,000 strike, with Put writing at 18,600 strike then 18,500 strike.

The data indicates that in near term, the Nifty may trade in range of 18,400 to 18,800. India VIX was up by 0.36 percent to 13.62 levels, but overall it has been cooling off for the last nine weeks and supporting the bulls.

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5 factors that will keep traders busy

After taking a breather in the previous week, the market resumed its uptrend and ended the week at a record closing high with a 1 percent gain on November 25, following an up-move in global counterparts amid rising hope that the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming policy meetings. The declining oil prices, buying by FIIs, and falling US bond yields, too, lifted the sentiment.

The BSE Sensex rallied more than 600 points to 62,294 and the Nifty50 jumped over 200 points to 18,513, while the broader markets were also in action after recent consolidation, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices gaining more than 2 percent each.

Auto, banks, technology, infrastructure, and oil and gas stocks supported the market, whereas power and realty stocks were under pressure.

In the coming week, too, the momentum along with consolidation is expected to sustain, with the Nifty likely hitting its intraday record high of 18,604, with focus on monthly auto sales numbers and second quarter GDP data on the domestic front, and global cues, experts said. The Bank Nifty as well as the BSE Sensex reclaimed their previous tops.

"Going ahead, the lack of strong fundamental triggers will limit the upside, keeping the market volatile in the short term. The Fed Chair's speech, scheduled for the next week, and the release of other significant macroeconomic data will influence the market's future trajectory," Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial services, said.

1) Quarterly GDP Numbers
The quarterly economic growth rate scheduled to be released on coming Wednesday is the key factor to watch out for next week. Most experts expect the economy to grow more than 6 percent in the September FY23 ended quarter (Q2CY22), lower compared to a growth rate of 13.5 percent recorded in the previous quarter (on a low base due to Covid-led lockdown in Q1FY22), supported by pent-up demand and economic activity normalization.

2) November Auto Sales
Monthly auto sales numbers scheduled to be released in the latter part of next week will also be watched. Commercial vehicle demand momentum is expected to continue in November, while the passenger vehicle sales are likely to be supported by improving semiconductor supply, experts said, but the sustainability of demand for two-wheeler post-festive season is a key to watch.

3) Oil Prices
The correction in oil prices was one of the reasons for strengthening market sentiment last week as it raises hope for ease in inflation and fiscal deficit concerns along with improving margin pressure for corporates. Also, the RBI may heave a sigh of relief as the rate hike pace may be slowed down, experts said.

4) Global Economic Data Points
Investors will closely watch the second estimates for the third quarter (CY22) US GDP, US unemployment rate for November, and monthly manufacturing PMI data due next week.

5) FII Flow
Healthy buying by foreign investors in November seems to have raised the confidence of the market. Experts largely feel the flow is expected to continue in the coming weeks with the fall in the US dollar index, and bond yields and given the India is the fastest-growing economy in the world.

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6 stocks that moved the most on November 11

Mahindra and Mahindra | CMP: Rs 1,289 | The share price ended in the red on November 11. The automobile major said it had closed Q2FY23 with a net profit of Rs 2,089.92 crore. The company said during the period under review, it had earned an operational revenue of Rs 20,839.27 crore (PY Q2 Rs 13,314.38 crore) and a net profit of Rs 2,089.92 crore (Rs 1,433.45 crore).

Alkem Laboratories | CMP: Rs 3,163.95 | The stock ended in the red on November 11. The company posted a 39 percent fall in its Q2 net profit at Rs 330.8 crore from the year-ago period. Revenue was up 10% at Rs 3,079.3 crore versus Rs 2,800 crore, YoY.

Ipca Laboratories | CMP: Rs 865 | The share price shed over 2 percent after the company reported a 42.5 percent year-on-year fall in its Q2FY23 net profit at Rs 143.9 crore. Its revenue was up 3.7% at Rs 1,601 crore from Rs 1,544.4 crore YoY.

Aster DM Healthcare | CMP: Rs 244.20 | The stock declined over 8 percent after the company reported a 57% year-on-year decline in profit at Rs 46.2 crore for Q2FY23, impacted by operating and margin performance. Revenue from operations for the quarter at Rs 2,816 crore grew 12% compared to the year-ago period. EBIDTA fell 7% to Rs 318.9 crore and the margin slipped 240 bps to 11.3% YoY.

Adani Green Energy | CMP: Rs 2,185 | The scrip ended in the green on November 11. The company recorded a 49% year-on-year increase in consolidated profit at Rs 149 crore for Q2FY23 led by lower cost of materials sold and finance cost. Revenue from operations increased by 19.5% to Rs 1,686 crore and EBITDA grew by 9% to Rs 966 crore from the same period last year but the margin dropped 550 bps YoY to 57.3% in Q2.

Muthoot Finance | CMP: Rs 1,075.50 | The stock shed over 2 percent after the firm reported a 12.8% year-on-year decline in profit at Rs 867.2 crore for the September quarter. Net interest income also fell 13.8% to Rs 1,595 crore compared to the year-ago period. Total income for the quarter at Rs 2,504 crore fell by 12% YoY.

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2

FIIs buy India stocks worth $1 billion in last six sessions

Between October 20 and 28, FIIs bought $923 million in equities, according to data from NSDL. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that on October 31, foreign investors bought around Rs 4,178.61 crore in Indian equities. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have bought $1 billion in Indian equities in the past six sessions and analysts believe the buying spree could continue amid hopes that US Federal Reserve may go slow on rate hikes.

Between October 20 and 28, FIIs bought $923 million in equities, according to data from NSDL. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that on October 31, foreign investors bought around Rs 4,178.61 crore in Indian equities. Markets in October were volatile. However, in the last few sessions it started trading higher. From October 1 to 13, both the Sensex and Nifty were down nearly 0.5% each, but started gaining from then.

Investors were cautious due to weakness in the broader indices as mid- and small-cap companies continued to underperform blue-chip stocks. Since October 13 till date, both the BSE MidCap and SmallCap are up just 3% and 1.2%, respectively.  Over that same period, both the Sensex and Nifty gained in 11 out of 12 sessions and rose over 6% each. The Sensex touched the key 61,000-point mark while the Nifty hit the 18,000 mark, just 1% away from its all-time high.

The Federal Reserve meeting will start on November 1 and the US central bank will announce its decision the following day. A rate hike of 75 basis points is already discounted by the market, according to analysts.

Dr V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said globally markets are looking forward to the Fed commentary after its meeting.  If it indicates moderation in rate hikes going forward, markets would respond positively, Vijayakumar said.

"Expectation build-up that the US Fed may be looking to slow the pace of rate hikes have led to markets globally doing well over the last one to two weeks. In India, some FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) who were wary of India's premium valuation and had reduced their holdings now seem to be returning," said Deepak Jasani, head of retail research, HDFC Securities.

Among sectors, buying was seen in PSUs (banks, oil exploration and materials), auto, realty, healthcare, telecom, capital goods and consumer durables by local and foreign investors, Jasani said.

Investors were also positive after the US reported strong Q3 GDP numbers, which surprised on the upside with a 2.6% growth, a stable dollar and continued fall in US bond yields. The dollar index was trading in the range of 109-112 in October. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has fallen nearly 22 basis points in the past six sessions. Investors are now eying US inflation and jobs data that will be out due later on Tuesday.

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Top 5 Shares that move most on 31st Oct

Life Insurance Corporation | CMP: Rs 603.85 | The scrip was up close to 2 percent on reports that the company plans to pay dividends or issue bonus shares to shareholders. The state-owned insurer is reportedly planning to transfer nearly $22 billion from policyholders' funds into a fund earmarked to pay dividends or issue bonus shares. The move is aimed at shoring up both its own net worth and investor confidence, according to a Reuters report.

Bharti Airtel | CMP: Rs 832 | The stock ended higher by almost 2 percent. Its consolidated net profit for the September quarter rose 89 percent to Rs 2,145.2 crore from Rs 1,134 crore a year back. The figure was in line with analysts' projections. Its total revenue came in at Rs 34,526.8 crore, up 22 percent from Rs 28,326.4 crore reported in the corresponding quarter last year. Analysts had estimated a 75 to 110 percent year-on-year (YoY) growth in net profit while revenue growth was pegged at around 20 percent.

Gland Pharma | CMP: Rs 1,787 | The stock price was down over 4 percent on fears of a likely distress sale of stake by its promoter entity Fosun Pharma Industrial Pte, dealers said. Fosun Pharma holds 57.86 percent of Gland Pharma, which has a strong presence in injectables export to regions like the US and Europe. Fosun International was recently downgraded deeper into 'junk' rating by credit rating agencies as the storm in the Chinese real estate market swept other sectors of the economy, according to a report by Forbes magazine.

Bandhan Bank | CMP: Rs 239.40 | The share price declined over 9 percent on October 31. The private sector lender posted a net profit of Rs 209 crore for the September quarter against a loss of Rs 3,008 crore a year ago, far below Street expectations. Net interest margin (NIM) slipped 100 basis points quarter-on-quarter to seven percent from eight percent. Asset quality showed very little improvement with gross net performing assets (NPA) at 7.2 percent versus 7.3 percent a quarter ago and net NPA flat at 1.9 percent. With slippages during the quarter in review at Rs 3,954 crore, analysts expect credit costs, which stood at 5.3 percent as against 2.7 percent in the June quarter, to remain high. Credit Suisse has trimmed the target price on the stock to Rs 330 from Rs 360. It expects credit costs to moderate in the second half of this fiscal but has cut FY23-25 EPS estimates by 9-19 percent.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories | CMP: Rs 4,427.45 | The scrip ended in the red on October 31. The company reported 12 percent growth in consolidated post-tax profit at Rs 1,113 crore during the September quarter defying analysts who had expected a drop in the bottom line. The drug firm reported a growth of 9 percent in consolidated revenues at Rs 6,306 crore in the September quarter. Sales from the North American market, nearly 50 percent of overall sales, grew 48 percent to Rs 2,800 crore during the quarter under review. With an outperform call on the stock, global brokerage Macquarie said, "Revlimid generic is living up to the expectations as September quarter numbers were better than expected. Management expects continued contribution from Revlimid in upcoming quarters." It has a target price of Rs 4,915 per share.

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Top Stock that move Most on 28th Oct

Indian equity benchmark indices ended higher in a highly volatile session on the monthly expiry day on October 27. The Sensex ended 212.88 points, or 0.36% higher, at 59,756.84, and the Nifty was up 80.70 points, or 0.46%, at 17,737.

Gland Pharma | CMP: Rs 1,898 | The share price of Gland Pharma declined 14.71 percent after the company reported a 20 percent year-on-year decline in profit at Rs 241.2 crore for the quarter ended September FY23, dented by weak topline as well as operating performance. Revenue for the quarter fell 3 percent YoY to Rs 1,044.4 crore. Citi has a "sell" call on the stock with the target price cut to Rs 1,920 from Rs 2,140 a share.

Dabur | CMP: Rs 551 | Share price of Dabur surged 3.5 percent after the company reported a market share gain across 95 percent of its portfolio in Q2FY23 and also announced the acquisition of Badshah Masala to expand its food business. Goldman Sachs has a "buy" call on the stock with a target price of Rs 680 apiece.

V-Guard | CMP: Rs 253 | The company reported a 26.8 percent fall in its Q2 net profit at Rs 43.6 crore versus Rs 59.4 crore. Mithun. K Chittilappilly, Managing Director, VGuard Industries, said "Margins for the quarter were impacted by the sale of higher cost wires inventory at relatively lower realizations due to a fall in copper prices. We should see margins returning to pre-Covid levels over the next two quarters." The stock ended 2.43 percent lower.

Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys | CMP: Rs 240.25 | The stock declined 6.19 percent as the company posted a 88.7 percent fall in its Q2FY23 net profit at Rs 16.3 crore against Rs 143.6 crore, while revenue was up 3 percent at Rs 672.5 crore versus Rs 653.2 crore, YoY.

Kaveri Seed | CMP: Rs 483 | Share price jumped after the board of directors approved the proposal for buying back the company's fully-paid equity shares having a face value of Rs 2 for an aggregate amount of Rs 125 crore at a price not exceeding Rs 700 per share. The stock ended 5.7 percent higher.

JSW Steel | CMP: Rs 680.90 | The company's US arm has raised $182 million from two Italian banking institutions—Intesa Sanpaolo and Banco BPM—to fund the modernising of its plate mill facility in Baytown, US. Despite posting a loss in Q2FY23, the steel major has maintained its FY22-23 volume guidance of 24-25 million tonnes, which has been cheered by investors. The stock was the top Nifty gainer on October 27,  up 5.8 percent.

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Nifty forms Bearish Belt Hold pattern, consolidation likely to continue before further uptrend

The Nifty50 lost momentum after the initial hour of the rally and remained under pressure throughout the session, forming a bearish candle which resembles a Bearish Belt Hold kind of pattern on the daily charts on October 25. This pattern is generally getting formed in an upward trend.

The index erased half of its Muhurat trading gains. This could just be a profit-taking after the recent rally and hence, as long as the index trades above its previous consolidation zone of 17,400-17,650, the trend is expected to be positive with resistance in the range of 17,900-18,000 levels, and support at 17,500-17,400 zone, experts said.

A 'Bearish Belt Hold' pattern is formed when the opening price becomes the highest point of the trading day (intraday high) and the index declines throughout the day making up the large body. The candle will either have a small or no upper shadow and a small lower shadow.

The broader markets had a mixed trend amid weak breadth. The Nifty Midcap 100 index was up half a percent and Smallcap 100 index declined 0.1 percent. About five shares declined for every three rising shares on the NSE.

The Nifty50 opened strong at 17,808 and hit a high of 17,811, but after an initial hour of the rally, erased all those gains and corrected up to 17,637, an intraday low. The 50-share NSE benchmark closed with 75 points loss at 17,656.

"During the day, the Nifty remained above the previous consolidation high, suggesting a rise in optimism. Over the short term, the trend is expected to remain strong," Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said. On the higher end, resistance is visible at 17,950. On the lower end, support is placed at 17,550-17,400, De added.

India VIX, which measures the expected volatility in the market, was down by 3.11 percent from 17.42 to 16.88 levels. Volatility cooled off from its highs but it needs to now further come down to 15-16 levels for market stability and a smoother ride, experts said.

On the Option front, we have seen maximum Call open interest at 18,000 strike followed by 17,800 strike while maximum Put open interest was seen at 17,500 strike then 17,000 strike.

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