Is India's low per capita income a threat to the consumption story?

India is slowly but steadily moving up the global ladder. With a 7 percent growth forecast for 2022, the country's economy, at $3.5 trillion, has overtaken that of the United Kingdom in terms of size and is now the fifth largest in the world. By 2027, it will move a notch up to number 4, according to the International Monetary Fund.

But with a population 20 times that of the UK, India's per capita GDP is significantly lower. India's annual per capita income at constant prices was at Rs 91,481 in 2021-22, which was below the pre-COVID level, government data shows.

But for market veterans, it is not much of a bother as they are betting big on India's consumption story. The number will only go up from here, they reason.

"We came from $300 billion to $3 trillion in the last 30 years. If I take an extra tier bet, we can go from $3 trillion to $30 trillion over the years, and obviously, our per capita will also go up in the timeframe," founder of MK ventures Madhusudan Kela said during Moneycontrol's Muhurat Roundtable.

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AU Small Finance shares saddled by slippages, expenses despite healthy Q2

The September quarter performance of AU Small Finance Bank failed to delight D-Street as share price of the Jaipur-based bank dropped 3.5 percent on October 20.

The bank reported modest operating profitability, said Credit Suisse. The company's expenses grew 51 percent year-on-year to Rs 832 crore from Rs 553 crore. Slippages remain elevated at Rs 262 crore. At 10 am, the stock was quoting at Rs 602.45 per share, down 3.75 percent. Ahead of its results, the stock had run up 7.3 percent in the past four sessions.

"The operating environment in the September quarter saw uncertainty over inflation, liquidity and rates intensifying significantly which continues to be the case. While the domestic outlook is encouraging, the possibility of a lagged impact of these factors on demand and activity levels can't be ignored and we are watchful," Sanjay Agarwal, MD & CEO of AU Small Finance Bank, said.

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Uptrend likely to continue if Nifty holds 17,500

The Nifty50 on October 21 started off on a positive note but weakness in European counterparts weighed on the sentiment in the later part of the session. The index eventually settled flat with a positive bias amid caution ahead of the long weekend, thereby extending the uptrend for the sixth consecutive session.

The index formed a small-bodied bearish candle on the daily charts as the closing was lower than the opening levels. The Nifty50 seems to have taken good support at 17,500-17,400 levels now, hence if it holds the 17,500 mark in coming sessions then the index can easily march towards 17,700-17,900 levels, experts said.

On a weekly basis, the Nifty50 has seen the formation of a decent bullish candlestick pattern, indicating that 17,900 is going to be the next stop for the index. It recouped all its previous week's losses and closed with 2.27 percent gains during the week.

On the broader markets front, however, there was underperformance compared to benchmarks. The Nifty Midcap 100 index was down 0.7 percent and Smallcap 100 index fell 0.14 percent amid weak breadth. About two shares declined for every share rising on the NSE.

The Nifty50 opened higher at 17,623 and hit an intraday high of 17,670, but some profit booking in the later part of the session pulled down the index up to 17,521 intraday. The index finally closed at 17,576, up 12.3 points.

"The Nifty successfully surpassed the 20 and 50 days SMA (simple moving average) resistance mark which is largely positive. It has also formed a long bullish candle on weekly charts that suggest further uptrend from the current levels," Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research at Kotak Securities said.

Stock Market Today

Indian stock market may continue to outperform in Samvat 2079

India's equity market is expected to continue outperforming global peers in the Hindu calendar year of Samvat 2079, aided by strong corporate earnings, analysts said.

Profit is likely to grow over 20 percent in 2023, led by strong credit offtake and a revival in private capital expenditure.

However, money managers expect volatility in returns from the equity market to remain high, given concerns over an impending global recession and geopolitical flashpoints in Europe and Asia.

The benchmark stock indices were resilient in Samvat 2078, with the Sensex and the Nifty losing about 1.89 percent and 2.59 percent, respectively, since last Diwali.

Although these were the first negative returns since 2016, the MSCI Emerging Markets index dropped 31 percent while the MSCI ACWI index lost 25 percent during the same period.

For global equities, Samvat 2078 turned out to be a challenging year, given headwinds including rate hikes, the energy crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continued supply disruptions, outflows from foreign investors, and heightened inflation.

End of cycle

Morgan Stanley said recently stocks in emerging markets and Asia excluding Japan are close to completing their bear market cycles. Nomura Research said Asian equities, including chipmakers, may bottom in the next few weeks after reviewing indicators on the last 12 US recessions and five chip cycles.

"... over the medium-term (>12 months), we see risk-reward quite attractive on Asian stocks. Assuming China does reopen sometime in early 2023 and stocks attempt to anticipate the end of the US recession (NMR: 4Q23), it is likely that a sustained recovery in Asian stocks may occur sometime in the first half of 2023," Nomura Research said in a report.

Indian Stock Market Today

Nifty forms bullish candle, 17,500-17,600 crucial area for further upside

The Nifty50 index is now closer to crucial area of 17,500-17,600 levels. If it manages to surpass this area, then it can gradually march towards 17,800-18,000 levels in coming sessions, with near term support at 17,300 followed by crucial at 17,000, said experts

The Nifty50 had more than 100 points gap up opening and decisively crossed more than couple of earlier swing highs to close with a percent gains, forming small bodied bullish candle on the daily charts on October 18. The 50-share NSE benchmark index extended uptrend for third session in a row, tracking positive mood in global counterparts, but failed to sustain 17,500 mark at close.

The index is now closer to a crucial area of 17,500-17,600 levels. If it manages to surpass this area, then it can gradually march towards 17,800-18,000 levels in coming sessions, with near-term support at 17,300 followed by crucial at 17,000, experts said.

The rally was seen across sectors with Bank, Auto, FMCG, IT, Metal and Oil&Gas indices gaining 1 percent each, while the broader markets were also strong with the Nifty Midcap 100 index rising 1.15 percent and Smallcap 100 index climbing 0.8 percent.

The Nifty50 opened higher at 17,439 and jumped up to 17,528, an intraday high. The index rose 175 points to 17,487, the highest closing level since September 22, taking total three-day gains to around 3 percent.
"In terms of the Fibonacci retracement, 61.8 percent retracement of the entire September decline i.e. 17,580 is expected to keep the current bounce in check," said Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

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Nifty forms bearish candle, sharp weakness possible below 200 DMA

The Nifty50 remained under selling pressure throughout the session on October 13 and fell more than 100 points, but defended not only recent low of 16,950 but also 200 days moving average (DMA - 16,987), tracking weak Asian cues. If these levels get broken then sharp selling pressure can't be ruled out in coming sessions, till then consolidation and volatility is expected to continue, experts said.

The index has formed bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts as the closing was lower than opening levels. Banking & financial services, select IT and FMCG stocks weighed down the market.

The broader markets also traded in line with benchmarks as the Nifty Midcap 100 index was down 0.7 percent and Smallcap 100 index fell 0.4 percent on weak breadth. About two shares declined for every share rising on the NSE. The Nifty50 opened lower at 17,087 and hit a day's low of 16,957 amid volatile and rangebound session. The index settled at 17,014, down 109 points
The Nifty50 remained under selling pressure throughout the session on October 13 and fell more than 100 points, but defended not only recent low of 16,950 but also 200 days moving average (DMA - 16,987), tracking weak Asian cues. If these levels get broken then sharp selling pressure can't be ruled out in coming sessions, till then consolidation and volatility is expected to continue, experts said.

The index has formed bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts as the closing was lower than opening levels. Banking & financial services, select IT and FMCG stocks weighed down the market.

The broader markets also traded in line with benchmarks as the Nifty Midcap 100 index was down 0.7 percent and Smallcap 100 index fell 0.4 percent on weak breadth. About two shares declined for every share rising on the NSE.

The Nifty50 opened lower at 17,087 and hit a day's low of 16,957 amid volatile and rangebound session. The index settled at 17,014, down 109 points.

Stock Market Update

Stocks to Watch Today | D-Mart, KEC International, NCC, HDFC

KEC International: The infrastructure EPC company has secured orders worth Rs 1,407 crore across segments. The transmission and distribution segment received orders from the Middle East, while the railways business has bagged an order for signaling and telecommunication works. Its year-to-date order intake now stands at Rs 8,400 crore.Dilip Buildcon: The road construction company through its joint venture RBL-DBL has received a letter of acceptance (LOA) for its Surat Metro Rail Project in Gujarat. The order is worth Rs 1,061 crore.Vedanta: The company said its alumina production at Lanjigarh refinery decreased 11 percent YoY to 4.54 lakh tonnes due to scheduled maintenance, and at Zinc India, reported highest-ever second quarter mined metal production at 2.55 lakh tonnes, up 3 percent YoY, driven by better grades and improved mill recoveries. In the steel segment, its total saleable production increased by 11 percent YoY to 3.25 lakh tonnes on account of the completion of debottlenecking activities in Q1FY23.Avenue Supermarts: The D-Mart operator announced standalone revenue for the quarter that ended September 2022 at Rs 10,384.66 crore, up significantly by 36 percent from Rs 7,649.64 crore in the same period last year. The total number of stores as of September 2022 stood at 302.NCC: The company received a new order for Rs 393 crore in September, which is related to its building division. The company received this order from state government agencies.Bank of Maharashtra: The PSU bank recorded 7.86 percent YoY growth in deposits at Rs 1.95 lakh crore, while gross advances grew by 28.65 percent to Rs 1.48 lakh crore in the quarter ended September 2022. The total business during the quarter increased by 15.93 percent to Rs 3.44 lakh crore.
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